Carolyn Bourdeaux 2020 campaign: The only Red-to-Blue Flip for Congress

GA-7, in the Northeast Atlanta metro area, includes Norcross, Cumming, Lawrenceville, Duluth, Snellville, Suwanee, and Buford, spanning Gwinnett and Forsyth counties.The district appeared favorable for Democrats, consistent with 2018 trends. The COVID-19 pandemic reshaped both the campaign and voter behavior: in-person early voting fell for the first time, while absentee votes surged from 13,051 to 510,446, making up 47.5% of Democratic primary ballots. This pattern was unlikely to change, even without statewide absentee mailings. 

 We aimed for 31% of the white vote while keeping white voters under 58% of the electorate. At the same time, voters of color were expected to maximize support for us and increase their overall share of the electorate, making up at least 42%, with Black voters holding 23% or more of the vote share to maintain a winning coalition.

Our messaging was mission-driven: we aimed to keep white vote share below 58% and Black vote share above 23%. Among voters of color, pandemic-related concerns—health care access and costs, government COVID response, and economic uncertainty—shaped priorities. Carolyn Bourdeaux was presented as a steady, reliable leader who understood these challenges as a working mother and would protect families, ensure affordable health care, provide paid leave, and support economic recovery. For lean-Republican white voters, messaging portrayed Rich McCormick as extreme and dangerous, targeting his opposition to health care protections, reproductive rights, and promotion of racist conspiracies.

Direct mail played a supporting role in the election, targeting key voter groups with tailored messaging. Black and Hispanic voters with low to moderate turnout received positive and contrastive messaging, middle CSM leaners got negative and contrastive content, and likely AAPI voters saw a mix of positive and negative messaging. Strong Democratic absentee voters received positive and contrastive outreach, lean-to-moderate GOP women requesting absentee ballots faced hard negative messaging, and likely supporters received absentee ballot applications. These absentee targets were part of a rapid-response program that ran from September 15 to October 26.

The Bourdeaux General election mail plan was one of the most comprehensive and successful multi-targeted programs we had ever run. With coverage from a robust TV ad campaign, direct mail played a specific role in out reach to targeted groups. Consisting of six separate target groups we focused on lower to mid-level turnout voters of different demographic make ups including, Black and Hispanic, and AAPI voters. We also had programs focused on absentee voters. Our mobilization sent positive messages to these groups while our demobilization plan focused on cross pressured Republicans. 

Bourdeaux's victory demonstrated that, despite broad TV messaging, key targeted groups still required activation and persuasion communications that they were not receiving through TV and Digital channels. A commitment from the campaign to focus on these groups left nothing to chance, and coming out of the 2020 cycle, CXC was able to refine strategies to integrate traditional media forms like direct mail in a new media world.