Joshua Cole 2019 CAMPAIGN: A Lesson in perseverance and Faith

Our strategy in HD28 was rooted in precision. Having come within 100 votes of victory in 2017, we left no room for errors in 2019. Every element of the program was carefully crafted. The campaign balanced Joshua Cole’s positive story of community leadership and service with sharp contrasts against Paul Milde’s record and agenda.

HD28, covering Fredericksburg City and Stafford County, was trending Democratic over recent election cycles. The district includes a mix of urban and suburban areas, with significant commuter populations along I-95. Our analysis identified key voter groups across the district, segmented into universes that allowed us to focus resources efficiently and understand the electorate’s composition, including Democrats, Independents, and lean Republican voters.

Our message was intentionally designed for maximum impact.The Democratic base received positive, motivating communications to drive turnout. Likely independents were engaged with a mix of positive and contrast messaging that highlighted shared values and appealed to swing voters. For voters leaning conservative, our contrastive messaging drew clear distinctions. Together, this disciplined approach laid the foundation for victory.

Cole’s campaign emphasized his deep local roots and community service using positive messaging to energize Democrats and mixed messaging to engage independents while highlighting contrasts with his opponent. The opposition was framed around his staunch anti-choice stance and eagerness to overturn Obamacare. This targeted approach ensured voters clearly understood each candidate’s record, values, and vision for the district.

In a district trending Democratic, Joshua Cole’s voter mobilization strategy focused on values-driven messaging and community engagement, highlighting his pastoral background and commitment to healthcare, women’s rights, fair pay, and paid leave. Data-driven efforts would prioritize growing Democratic neighborhoods, ensuring both base and persuadable voters are engaged from the beginning of the campaign.

After Joshua’s razor-thin loss in 2017, strategic investments in his program and consistent outreach to lower-propensity voters transformed this race. What had once been a district overlooked by both parties quickly became one of the top Democratic pickup opportunities. Joshua’s eventual win remains one of the few instances where a Democrat flipped a district carried by Trump in 2016—while nearly every other Democratic gain that cycle came from districts Hillary Clinton had already won. Notably, the only other such flip was also a CXC client.